💥 Tariff Panic Over – But the Gold Story Isn’t

The White House has clarified that gold bars will be exempt from the new 39% tariff on Swiss imports. While markets breathed a sigh of relief, the episode exposed just how sensitive the global bullion system is to political shocks. Here’s the full story.

🇺🇸 Tariffs Trigger Chaos

Initially, US Customs told a Swiss refiner that 1-kilo and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to the new reciprocal tariff rate — sparking market turmoil. The White House later clarified that Customs had spoken out of turn.

📦 Americans Hoarding Bullion

For decades, the US exported more gold to Switzerland (the global refining hub) than it imported. That flipped after Trump’s return to office, with safe-haven demand and trade tensions reshaping flows.

🧭 Three Key Hubs

Switzerland: World’s top refiner 🏭
London: Largest physical gold hub (LBMA) 🏦
New York: Biggest futures market (COMEX) 📈 A tariff here would have been like blocking an artery in the heart of global bullion circulation.

⛓ The Exchange-for-Physical Link

COMEX futures in New York are often swapped for physical gold in London. When the tariff scare hit, COMEX prices spiked above London’s spot prices, prompting bullion banks to rush gold from Swiss refiners and London vaults to the US.

🪗 A Severe Squeeze

The rush drained London vaults, pushing Bank of England withdrawal times from days to 4–8 weeks. Even today, London remains tight on supply – albeit it has been getting better.

Evidently, the massive flows into New York are feeding the record COMEX deliveries. Despite the spikes have waned, the demand for the physical metal has remained tremendous.

📰 More Than “Tariff Dodging”

While the Financial Times framed the rush as an attempt to avoid tariffs, the deeper cause was geopolitical risk and safe-haven demand. Tariffs were just the spark — the fuel was uncertainty.

🥇 Part of an “America First” Strategy?

Analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs speculated that Washington might be trying to shift refining from Switzerland to the US — but warned this could backfire given Switzerland’s neutrality, low taxes, privacy protections, and strong property rights.

⚠ Interventionism Is Risky

Even without an actual tariff, the scare highlighted how political risk can disrupt gold’s “plumbing” and distort prices, flows, and liquidity in a matter of days.

♟ Gold as a Strategic Asset

This was a stress test for the global bullion market. Result? Even under threat, gold still proves to be a vital refuge in uncertain times.

💭 Lessons Learned

The episode shows that in today’s geopolitical climate, even the threat of policy action can move markets in dramatic ways. For gold, it’s further proof of its enduring role as a strategic and essential asset.

📌 Note: As of the time of publishing (August 13), no executive order had been enacted to formalize the exemption. However, since then, the White House issued one to clarify and confirm this exemption — seeing that the text is filled with technical jargon and specificities, Ronan Manly explained it clearly.

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