The In Gold We Trust report archive

Here you will find all previous In Gold We Trust reports.

igwt23 cover de
In Gold We Trust report 2023

Showdown

We live in a time when events unfold at an ever-accelerating pace. The quote erroneously attributed to Lenin, “There are decades in which nothing happens, and weeks in which decades happen,” now seems to be our reality. Certainties of decades past are being made obsolete overnight. As we follow the news, many of us experience uncertainty, trepidation, and overwhelm. The global pandemic, the inflation crisis, increasing political polarization, technological breakthroughs such as artificial intelligence – which, by the way, we used to create the cover of this In Gold We Trust report – but also the impending geopolitical realignment are changing our lives in ways that were unimaginable to many of us just a few years ago.

 

We have referred to these looming epochal changes many times in past In Gold We Trust reports. We chose titles such as “Gold in the Age of Eroding Trust” (2019) and “Monetary Climate Change” (2021) for good reason. And this year, too, calls for a pointed title that captures the complexity of the current situation. We’re going with Showdown.

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In Gold We Trust report 2022

Stagflation 2.0

In the fall of 2020, in the midst of the second Covid-19 wave, we were prompted to publish a special edition of the In Gold We Trust report. In our publication entitled “The Boy Who Cried Wolf: Inflationary Decade Ahead?”, we used Aesop’s parable to issue an urgent warning about the danger of inflation creeping up on us. The majority of market participants were no longer familiar with this predator, which was thought to be extinct, since the last period of high inflation was many decades ago.

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21 igwt report EN
In Gold We Trust report 2021

Monetary Climate Change

A monetary climate change is taking place right before our eyes. We identify three key aspects to this change: budgetary nonchalance, the merging of monetary and fiscal policy and the creation of new tasks for monetary policy.
Climate change and the associated striving for a “more sustainable economy” are omnipresent issues today. From energy production and mobility to the food industry and retail, to government bonds and investment funds, everything imaginable is given predicates such as “green”, “sustainable” or “climate-neutral”. ESG and SRI have become winged acronyms that no one seems able to elude.

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20 igwt report EN
In Gold We Trust report 2020

The Dawning of a Golden Decade

This year’s 14th edition of our In Gold We Trust report, titled “The Dawning of a Golden Decade”, is being published at the opening of a new decade.
As the last decade draws to a close, gold has once again demonstrated its sensitive seventh sense and alerted the keen observer that the general situation in the financial markets is about to change fundamentally. Last year economic activity cooled off noticeably, and it was only a matter of time before the long overdue recessionary storm broke. In anticipation of the storm, the development in calendar year 2019 was superb on a US dollar basis, with a plus of 18.9%, and even more remarkable on a euro basis with 22.7%.

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19 igwt report EN
In Gold We Trust report 2019

Gold in the Age of Eroding Trust

It’s a special edition. Never before have we invested so much time, energy, money and passion into this report. Never before has the team for the report been so large. And never before have we analyzed such a broad spectrum of topics. For the first time, we are publishing the In Gold We Trust report in China, for a market that is becoming increasingly important for us and for the gold industry. But it is also a special vintage because we have chosen a theme that is of the utmost importance for both interpersonal cooperation and economic prosperity. The term is so crucial that it is an integral part of the name of our annual publication: trust.

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In Gold We Trust report 2018

Gold and the Turning of the Monetary Tides

Much of what is currently happening right in front of our eyes provides evidence of an unfolding sea change in the global monetary order. As the US Fed turns from monetary easing to monetary tightening, with uncertain outcomes for the global economy, investors’ trust in currencies issued by central banks is eroding. Blockchain technology has enabled a much-hyped boom in cryptocurrencies as investors seek alternatives to the US dollar, once perceived as an invulnerable safe haven. These shifting tides in the monetary system are coming to pass in different ways, at different velocities, and at different levels of visibility. On the cusp of fundamental change, it is particularly important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees.

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goldreport 2017

In Gold We Trust report 2017

We live in an age of advanced monetary surrealism. In Q1 2017 alone, the largest central banks created the equivalent of almost USD 1,000 bn. worth of central bank money ex nihilo. Naturally the fresh currency was not used to fund philanthropic projects but to purchase financial securities1. Although this ongoing liquidity supernova has temporarily created an uneasy calm in financial markets, we are strongly convinced that the real costs of this monetary madness will reveal themselves down the line.

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goldreport 2016

In Gold We Trust report 2016

Gold is back! With the strongest quarterly performance in 30 years, the precious metal in Q1 2016 emerged from the bear market that had been in force since 2013. A decisive factor in this comeback is growing uncertainty over the recovery of the post-Lehman economy. After years of administering high doses of monetary painkillers, will the Fed succeed in discontinuing the practice? Or is the entire therapy about to be fundamentally questioned?

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goldreport 2015

In Gold We Trust report 2015

Little has changed with regard to the factors affecting the gold price. Yields on government bonds are low and the opportunity costs of holding gold accordingly remain negligible. Several central banks are currently engaged in QE-programs and are trying to weaken their currencies. Technical analysis shows that the bottoming phase of the past several years hasn’t concluded yet. For the next twelve months we are forecasting a price range of approx. USD 1,200 – 1,250.

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goldreport 2014

In Gold We Trust report 2014

We are currently on a journey to the outer reaches of the monetary universe. We believe that the monetary experiments currently underway will have numerous unintended consequences, the extent of which is difficult to gauge today. Gold, as the antagonist of unbacked paper currencies, remains an excellent hedge against rising price inflation and worst case scenarios.

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goldreport 2013

In Gold We Trust report 2013

Even though the consensus is convinced that the gold bull market has ended, we remain firmly of the opinion that the fundamental argument in favor of gold remains intact. There exists no back-test for the current financial era. Never before have such enormous monetary policy experiments taken place on a global basis. If there ever was a need for monetary insurance, it is today.

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goldreport 2012

In Gold We Trust report 2012

The foundation for new all-time-highs is in place. As far as sentiment is concerned, we definitely see no euphoria with respect to gold. Skepticism, fear, and panic are never the final stop of a bull market. In the short run, seasonality seems to argue in favor of a continued sideways movement, but from August onwards gold should enter its seasonally best phase. USD 2,000 is our next 12M price target. We believe that the parabolic trend phase is still ahead of us, and that our long-term price target of USD 2,300/ounce could be on the conservative side.

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goldreport 2011

In Gold We Trust report 2011

The (financial) world is currently long in questions but short in answers. We believe that gold is still one of the few right answers in times of chronic uncertainty. In what is now our fifth Gold Report we want to explain why our long-term target of USD 2,300, set for the first time three years ago, could come out on the conservative side.

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goldreport 2010

In Gold We Trust report 2010

2009 was an exciting and lucrative year for gold investors. Our first target price of USD 1,300 was almost reached, but to reiterate an earlier statement – our actual target is USD 2,300/ounce. The gold price broke the USD 1,000 mark on a sustainable basis and increased by 24% y/y in USD terms and by 20.5% y/y in EUR terms. But 2010 and beyond should turn out even more interesting for gold – and we would like to discuss the reasons in our fourth annual Gold Report.

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goldreport 2009

In Gold We Trust report 2009

Since our initial recommendation in 2007 at USD 650, gold outperformed almost every other asset class. The gold bull market has been running with an annual performance of 16% since 2001. Gold closed the year 2008 with the eighth annual increase in a row. And in the year to date, the performance has been outstanding as well: the gold price has recorded an increase of 7% (in USD) and 8% (in EUR), respectively. The average price in 2008 was USD 872/ounce, i.e. 25% higher than in 2007 (USD 695).

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goldreport 2008

In Gold We Trust report 2008

The first chart of the report is a prime example of the impressive performance of highquality gold shares even in a volatile market scenario. This cross section is not just a list of top-performers, but the result of the objective selection of gold mining shares that have shown to perform clearly above average over a long period of time. Since we rated the industry environment very favourably in our previous gold report of May last year, some of these shares have already been on our weekly recommendation list for months. This latest gold report will now illustrate in detail why the sector should remain attractive for a good number of years more. This sector analysis provides the interested investor not only with a comprehensive body of know-how as basis for decision-making in the gold sector, but also with various additional and extraordinarily attractive investment ideas.

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goldreport 2007

In Gold We Trust report 2007

Gold is a chemical element and a precious metal. The chemical symbol for gold is AU, which is derived from the Latin name aurum. Since the beginning of recorded history, the yellow metal has held a special attraction for people and was often the cause of wars and conquests. Gold was one of the first metals worked by humans, because it is found in nature as an element and can easily be alloyed with other metals and processed mechanically very well.

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