The (financial) world is currently long in questions but short in answers. We believe that gold is still one of the few right answers in times of chronic uncertainty. In what is now our fifth Gold Report we want to explain why our long-term target of USD 2,300, set for the first time three years ago, could come out on the conservative side.
Gold is a highly emotional topic. It seems there are only two opposing fronts here: people who love gold (aka gold bugs), and people who hate it. There are only very few shades of grey between these two fronts, and people are extremely hesitant to defect from one to the other. It seems as if we were faced with something like “aurophobia“1, especially in the financial sector. This pathological fear of, or aggression towards, gold does not seem to exist for any other commodity. After all, we have not heard of such a profound aversion against copper, we do not know “bond haters”, nor are militant property bashers a popular concept. We regard ourselves as analysts rather than psychotherapists, which is why we do not really want to dwell on the reasons for that strong aversion. Instead we would like to continue substantiating with data, historical comparisons, and facts why we believe that gold should be a central module of the portfolio.
+25%, +140%, +460%, +4,322%. These are the performances since the previous Gold Report, since the first Gold Report, since the beginning of the bull market in 2000, and since 1970. Gold set new (nominal) highs last year both in USD and EUR as well as in numerous other currencies. The following chart illustrates the fact that the bull market is intact in both EUR and USD, but also that we have not seen the trend acceleration yet.
“Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world… Fiat money, in extremis, is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted”
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