In Gold We Trust 2011: The Climax of the Golden Decade
16. Februar 2026
This is a follow-up to our previous piece on the battle to succeed Jerome Powell. As it turns out, the story is far from settled.
Just weeks ago, the consensus view was that the race for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve was narrowing, if not closing. Prediction markets had largely converged, Wall Street had penciled in a likely outcome, and the debate felt more academic than urgent.
How quickly things can change!
Over the past week, the Fed Chair race has reopened in dramatic fashion, with a new front-runner emerging and markets scrambling to reassess what comes next. With the January FOMC meeting concluding today and Powell’s term ending in May 2026, the timing could not be more consequential.
Visibly, prediction markets have delivered a clear signal: Rick Rieder is now the top bet to become the next Federal Reserve Chairman.
Rieder’s surge followed public praise from Donald Trump, who described the BlackRock executive as “very impressive” last week. That single comment was enough to reorder the odds, reopening a race many believed was already decided.
Why does this matter? Because markets treat signals from the White House differently than speculation from pundits. Trump’s endorsement, even an informal one, suggested that the decision may be closer, and more market-sensitive, than previously assumed.
Basically, Rieder is widely viewed as closely aligned with market participants and openly supportive of aggressive rate cuts. His rise has fueled expectations that the next Fed Chair could take a meaningfully more dovish stance than Jerome Powell. Naturally, that prospect cuts both ways.
On the one hand, lower rates and a more market-friendly Fed would be welcomed by risk assets and an economy facing slowing momentum. On the other hand, it raises uncomfortable questions about institutional independence, especially given the broader economic framework emerging from the Trump administration.
When asked about this, President Trump reinforced those expectations yesterday, stating that he would “announce it pretty soon” and that “we’ll see rates come down a lot” as the next Fed Chair aligns with his administration’s economic strategy, which is often described as the Mar-a-Lago Accord framework. In short: markets are being told, explicitly, to expect a dovish pivot.
Unsurprisingly, this is where Wall Street grows uneasy.
While investors broadly support easier monetary policy, they are equally wary of a Fed perceived as too responsive to political pressure. As Reuters recently noted, banks and asset managers are hoping that whoever is selected will remain data-dependent, credible, and institutionally independent, even under an activist White House.
That tension explains why the reopening of the race has increased volatility rather than reduced it. Obviously, markets are not just pricing a person, they’re pricing the future role of the Fed itself.
This leadership uncertainty doesn’t exist in a vacuum, of course.
As explored in our partner Sound Money Report’s latest Substack on the silver squeeze, markets are already grappling with institutional fragility, geopolitical stress, and declining confidence in policy anchors. As a matter of fact, silver’s explosive move has been less about inflation headlines and more about trust… or the lack of it.
The sudden rise of Rick Rieder fits squarely into that narrative. Even the perception that the Fed may soon be led by someone deeply attuned to markets, and aligned with a broader political strategy, reinforces the sense that monetary policy is becoming more contingent, more tactical, and less insulated.
Moreover, Powell’s tenure ends in May 2026, leaving him with just two more FOMC meetings — in March and April — after today’s decision. That means the shadow Fed Chair effect is already in play: markets are increasingly focused on who comes next, not just what happens now.
Whether Rick Rieder ultimately gets the nod or not, one thing is clear: The race is back on, the stakes are rising, and markets are listening to every word.
In conclusion, this story boils down to a referendum on:
The future independence of the Federal Reserve
The balance between markets and policymakers
And the credibility of monetary institutions in a more politicized world
As the January FOMC concludes and the countdown to May begins, expect this debate, along with the volatility around it, to intensify. Sooner or later the Fed Chair race will end, but the implications for the monetary system and the global economy will just begin to emerge.
#FederalReserve #FedChair #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #FedIndependence #TrumpEconomy #RickRieder #HawksVsDoves #WallStreet #MacroTrends #SilverSqueeze #GoldSurge #SoundMoney #HardAssets #SafeHaven #PredictionMarkets #CentralBanking #FinancialMarkets #FiscalDominance #EconomicStatecraft
Erhalten Sie den jährlich erscheinenden In Gold We Trust-Report sowie das Chartbook mit den dazugehörigen Charts.
